Efeito do aquecimento global em atributos da germinação e distribuição geográfica potencial de Dipteryx Alata Vog. (Fabaceae)

Abstract

The impacts of climate changes will affect since natural ecological systems until socioeconomic systems. The increase of temperature in Cerrado will imply on a redistribution of forest species, implying in decrease and loss of species. The phenological characteristics of plants are highly affected by climate changes because factors as temperature and water availability are responsible for enzymatic activity that will change the germination cycle of the plant. The substrate will also interfere in germination, once the physical structure of the soil is responsible for water retention wich is crucial in the seed soaking phase. Due to the wide distribution on the biome just as the social significance to the region, a Dipteryx alata (popularly known as baru) was chosen as study object and it can be a model to other Cerrado species. The aim of this work was to evaluate the effect of global warming related to different kinds of soil atop germination attributes of D. alata just as global warming effects in niche models and direct and indirect connections of germination in conceptual model to the species. 240 seeds were exposed to 3 differents temperature and 4 types of soil. Were analysed variations of size and weight of seedlings as germination metric. The construction of niche model was done by compilating climate maps gathered on EcoClimate databases and climatic variations exploited of WORLCLIM. Through a conceptual model we can see the relation between the increasing of temperature, the probability of occurrence of the specie and the characteristics of germination analyzing the interference in each level. The increasing of the highest temperature reduced the characteristics of germination impacting the feasibility of Baru’s germination. As the model of niche, the Centro-Sul and West region of the biome can show more adequability to D. alata. The conceptual model showed temperature affects directly and indirectly the probability of occurrence of the specie. So, some regions can The increasing of temperature reduced germination attributes, thus, impacted the viability of Baru germination. According to the niche model, South-Center and west regions of biome can show more adequacy to D. alata. The conceptual model indicated that temperature affects directly and indirectly the probability of species occurrence. Therefore, some regions will have benefits with the increasing temperature while others will declinate in the presence of D. alata individuals due to the relation between germination and temperature.