Efeito potencial das mudanças climáticas sobre as plantas medicinais do cerrado na América do Sul

Abstract

In a scenario of a constantly changing world strongly influenced by human actions, biodiversity faces increasingly intense threats. The significant loss of species in terrestrial and marine ecosystems is an evident concern resulting from climate change and anthropogenic activities. It is crucial to emphasize that climate change can become the greatest biodiversity threat. However, even in the face of climate change, many species may be unable to disperse rapidly enough to avoid local extinctions. To address this challenge, we used species distribution models to analyze how future climate changes can influence the richness and distribution of medicinal plant species in the Cerrado in South America. We collected occurrences and environmental variables from online databases and predicted species distributions in three scenarios and eight atmosphere-ocean circulation models. Subsequently, we evaluated the effectiveness of the models using the Jaccard metric. The results showed an excellent Jaccard value for the models, and species are more likely to occur in the region. However, significant losses in suitable areas were noticeable in future scenarios, especially in Brazil. Depending on the scenario, the reduction ranged from 50% to 64%, with some species facing critical situations and possible extinctions. The shift of centroids to warmer regions, including the Amazon rainforest, suggests ecological adaptation but also highlights potential imbalances. In summary, climate change threatens the diversity and distribution of these species, requiring attention and interventions for preservation.